Realius Blog http://blog.realius.com Predict It, You Make the Market posterous.com Mon, 23 Aug 2010 12:08:52 -0700 Getting the Market Sentiment Right http://blog.realius.com/getting-the-market-sentiment-right http://blog.realius.com/getting-the-market-sentiment-right Great article in the NY Times today about the role of housing as an investment vehicle.  What caught my attention was this:

In an annual survey conducted by the economists Robert J. Shiller and Karl E. Case, hundreds of new owners in four communities — Alameda County near San Francisco, Boston, Orange County south of Los Angeles, and Milwaukee — once again said they believed prices would rise about 10 percent a year for the next decade.

With minor swings in sentiment, the latest results reflect what new buyers always seem to feel. At the boom’s peak in 2005, they said prices would go up. When the market was sliding in 2008, they still said prices would go up.

An annual survey of real estate sentiment is not sufficient.  Can you imagine the uncertainty in the market if the Consumer Price Index was based on an annual survey?  Our Real Estate Market Sentiment Index is based on real time data from thousands of active real estate buyers.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Wed, 18 Aug 2010 17:19:00 -0700 Moving beyond the game - measuring the sentiment http://blog.realius.com/moving-beyond-the-game-measuring-the-sentimen http://blog.realius.com/moving-beyond-the-game-measuring-the-sentimen

Realius is moving beyond the game to measuring the consumer sentiment of local real estate markets.  When individuals shopping for real estate at our partner, Zip Realty's website, they will see our prediction widget in the sidebar of each property listing.  We have come up with a way to aggregate the thousands of predictions we obtain into an index that measures how people feel about local real estate markets from a price perspective.  We call our index the Market Sentiment Index.  As the chart below shows, when measured across the United States, our index has been tracking the Case-Shiller index. Since the index is base on real time perceptions of real estate markets, our index is 60 days ahead of Case Shiller.  Below is a graph of the index based on data through May 2010.  I will hold back on the real time results for the moment.  If you want to learn more, contact us at info@realius.com.

Preview

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Fri, 13 Feb 2009 21:09:46 -0800 Predict the price of homes @ Zip Realty - you might win $500! http://blog.realius.com/predict-the-price-of-homes-zip-realty-you-mig http://blog.realius.com/predict-the-price-of-homes-zip-realty-you-mig Our partner, Zip Realty, has launched a contest that runs through May 15, 2009. Read more about it in their blog. Predict the price of at least 20 homes and you will have a chance to win $5oo. Do a good job at reading the market and your name will be at the top of the Leaderboard. What are you waiting for.  Sign up at Zip Realty and search for homes at their site.  Search for homes in an area where you want to buy or where you own a home.  View the property details and you will see the prediction widget in the left hand column.
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Uploaded with plasq's Skitch!

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Tue, 16 Dec 2008 20:14:00 -0800 Geek Estate Blog Covers Realius Prediction Widget http://blog.realius.com/geek-estate-blog-covers-realius-prediction-wi http://blog.realius.com/geek-estate-blog-covers-realius-prediction-wi

Drew Meyers authored two posts over at the Geek Estate Blog covering the launch of our prediction widget with Zip Realty.  The first article, ZipRealty Integrates Community Estimating Technology from Realius, covers the history of our work with Zip and Drew's thoughts on collecting price estimates from the community at large. Drew notes:

It’s going to take a little bit of time for community estimates to build up to a point where there are 5 or 10 estimates on many listings, but I think it’s a great feature for consumers in the long run. Over the long haul, a high IQ could prove to be a way for agents to demonstrate they know their local market well.

He also poses some key questions for the Geek Estate Community:

If you are an agent or broker, do you see any value to using this feature to estimate listing prices?
for the agents and brokers reading this, aside from the cost, do you see any reason not to integrate this functionality in your web site?

His last question is for me - but I can't answer it right now: "any other guesses as to the next brokerage to add community estimating to their offering?" Drew's second post is a great interview with Myron Lo from Zip Realty.  Myron provides his insight on the benefit of adding community predictions to the Zip site.

Q: What kind of feedback did you get from consumers? A: The overall feedback from our customers was great. In addition to making real estate a little more fun, our customers appreciated the extra price opinion they would get with the ‘ZIP Community Price’. The biggest suggestion they had for us was to integrate our community pricing more tightly with our main website so that they’d be able to see price predictions for the specific homes they were interested in.

If you are interested in adding community estimating to your site - drop me a note at chuck.teller (at) realius.com.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Mon, 15 Dec 2008 14:00:33 -0800 Predict Widget Launches @ Ziprealty.com http://blog.realius.com/predict-widget-launches-ziprealtycom http://blog.realius.com/predict-widget-launches-ziprealtycom This morning our prediction widget launched in association with our national real estate partner, Zip Realty. The widget is more than the standard read-only data widgets that you often see.  Our widget has read-write capabilities and includes user state management (sign up / sign in / already predicted). Now our partners can now embed our prediction widget right into their site.  The user no longer has to leave the real estate site to enter a prediction, view the current community estimate and see their current IQ. Our widget is not a one-size fits all.  You can use our standard widget design or roll your own with CSS.  Our standard widget can be integrated into your site as an embedded i-frame.  If space is tight, you can trigger the i-frame from a button on your site.  If you want to roll your own design, like Zip Realty, have your in-house designer reskin and resize the widget to meet your needs by using the CSS (cascading style sheet). We provide three supporting pages to the widget.  The prediction details page, player profile page and all players page.  Once you predict, you can get to the prediction details page by selecting View All Predictions link.  If you want to review all of your predictions, select the My Predictions link from within the widget.  From either of these pages, you can get to the All Players by selecting the Players link in the upper left hand corner of the page. All of the data shown on the predictions detail, player profile or all players pages can be accessed through our API and integrated into your site as you like. The best part about the widget is that it is super easy to install and configure.  In the coming days, we will be publishing installation instructions.  Stay tuned. So if you want to know what the market thinks the homes you are trying to sell are worth - install your prediction market widget and start harnessing the collective wisdom of the crowd. In the meantime, head on over to Zip Realty's site (registration is required), search for a property, view the property details and make your prediction of the sale price - it is easy to find just to the right of the photos. Want to know how well you can read the market?  Predict the price of homes in areas you are tracking, then monitor the predictions as the flow in by visiting the property details page and select View All Predictions from the widget.  Once the home sells, we'll let you know how close you were to the final sales price.  Play the market for 30-60 days and you will know better than most where prices stand.
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Join us in harnessing the collective wisdom of the market place. Predict it - you make the market.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Mon, 17 Nov 2008 05:38:02 -0800 Live from Australia http://blog.realius.com/live-from-australia http://blog.realius.com/live-from-australia Price Me Now, the real estate prediction market, launched with our Australian Partner RP Data last week.  Currently you can price homes in Sydney and Brisbane.  We will be adding more markets shortly. You can find cool homes in magical areas like Bondi Beach by going to http://propertyiq.com.au and searching.  We'll find the homes nearby that are on the market and you can start learning the Australian real estate market and building your PropertyIQ.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Tue, 30 Sep 2008 04:27:23 -0700 New Player Profile and Home Detail http://blog.realius.com/new-player-profile-and-home-detail http://blog.realius.com/new-player-profile-and-home-detail We've updated our player profile and home detail pages to make them much more useful.  Here are the highlights.
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Player Profile - we now list all your predictions in an easy to read table format. You can filter the list by the locations you have played. I like to play the homes near where I live, so one of my top locations is my home address.  Every couple of weeks, I start the game and play this location so that I can stay on top of prices in my neighborhood. We also separate the homes you have made predictions on by status - For Sale, Pending and Sold.  The "For Sale" homes are still on the market and the Community Price is changing as more predictions flow in.  You can scan the list quickly to see which homes are getting lots of action - we list the number of predictions on each home.  The "Pending" homes are off the market, but the sales price is not in yet.  There are no more predictions on Pending homes - we are just waiting for the sales price to be recorded.  Lastly are the "Solds".  In the upper right hand portion of the page, we show the homes that you have predicted and we have collected the sales price.  We let you know your IQ against the final sales price and we show you how your prediction ranks against others. Click any home address to get to the new Home Details Page.
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The Home details page shows you all the predictions on the house sorted by the closest to the Sales Price for homes that have sold or Community Price for homes that are still on the market or Pending.  For homes that have sold, in the last column, we record your final Property IQ - the measure of how well you predicted the sales price.  One thing to keep in mind when viewing the Property IQ - not all homes are measured on the same scale.  If the final sales price is much higher or lower than the list price, then it is more difficult to predict the price.  These homes will generate a higher IQ if you nail the price.
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For homes that are still on the market, we show you how you IQ is changing as the predictions flow in.  If you entered one of the early predictions on a home, make sure you check back to see how your prediction is standing up as more flow in.  If you were wondering how many predictions are flowing in - just check out these three homes in my profile - they have 115, 117 and 78 predictions respectively.  Now that's alot of insight into these three properties.  If you are wondering what the market things about the value of a home you are selling or buying.  Play it in the game (if it is on the market you can find the home by entering the address in the search bar on the home page), price it and then go to your profile and check out the predictions.  Want to see what others think - invite them to make a prediction. So there you have it. With the power of  the Price Me Now prediction market, you can finally get a sense of what the community thinks a house is worth.  Best of all, if you watch the predictions while the home is on the market, you can get a good sense if the property is properly priced.  Power to the community.  Price away!

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Sun, 31 Aug 2008 17:35:44 -0700 The names make the story http://blog.realius.com/the-names-make-the-story http://blog.realius.com/the-names-make-the-story The Stop Here Realty blog has an amusing post that weaves the names of various real estate web 2.0 companies into a funny post that addresses the relevant business questions for any software solution:
  • How do I use these new solutions?
  • How will my clients benefit?
  • How will I benefit?
  • Which ones should I invest in?
  • Which functionality provides the best return?
The post, Understanding RE Web 2.0 - btw Where are my meds?, is worth the 2 minutes it will take to read if you are spending any of your time following the array of companies in this space.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Thu, 31 Jul 2008 22:05:22 -0700 You Call the Market http://blog.realius.com/you-call-the-market http://blog.realius.com/you-call-the-market Today we launched our first Zillow-based real estate prediction market.  You can start playing the New York metro area at Predict.Realius.com. Across America experts are prognasticating about where we are in the real estate cycle.  We say - "You call the market".  So jump in and predict home prices for selected listings and Make Me Move properties from Zillow.com.  You can monitor how your predictions fare against others and ultimately the market when the home sells. Thanks to Zillow for creating an awesome developer API program that lets us build our game on top of their real estate information.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Wed, 09 Jul 2008 22:28:31 -0700 Calling all armchair agents http://blog.realius.com/calling-all-armchair-agents http://blog.realius.com/calling-all-armchair-agents Cindy Zetts, who writes the Real Estate Deal for the Seattle Times, blogged about the Zip Realty version of Price Me Now.  She wants to know your IQ.  Her post, titled "Armchair agents, try this real-estate pricing game" is here.  She played 15 homes and got a 111 Property IQ.  She wants to know yours - head on over to her post and enter your IQ in the comment string.
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Tue, 08 Jul 2008 21:24:23 -0700 Live @ Zip Realty http://blog.realius.com/live-zip-realty http://blog.realius.com/live-zip-realty We are now live with Price Me Now in association with our first national real estate partner, Zip Realty. You can find a link to the game on their home page:
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And once you login, you will see the banner on the property search and home detail page, shown below.
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You can currently play in three metro areas: Boston, Seattle and San Francisco.  You can start by choosing one of the Top Play Locations or enter an address in the search bar (if it is in one of these three metro areas).
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The game is predicated on players predicting the sales price of homes on the market.  As more predictions flow in, we will let you know how your predictions compare to others in the market.  Once the home sells and the sales price is available in the public records, we will let you know how you compare against the market. So, now you can track home prices near where you live, in your favorite neighborhood or where you want to live some day.  By participating in the game, you will test your knowledge, learn where the market is going and have fun in the process.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Thu, 19 Jun 2008 21:31:34 -0700 In good company http://blog.realius.com/in-good-company-7 http://blog.realius.com/in-good-company-7 We were nominated for the Inman Innovation Award in the area of Web Services. We are in very good company with Zillow's Mortgage Marketplace, Krunching, Foreclosureradar and Estately. Read more here.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Wed, 11 Jun 2008 01:35:41 -0700 Predicting Home Prices in Cincinnati, Ohio http://blog.realius.com/predicting-home-prices-in-cincinnati-ohio http://blog.realius.com/predicting-home-prices-in-cincinnati-ohio This morning we launched Price Me Now, the real estate prediction game, in Cincinnati Ohio with our broker partner Comey-Shepherd. You can start predicting prices for homes in Cincinnati here. This installation covers the entire Cincinnati Metro Area. You can get started by clicking on one of the top play location links or enter any address, zip code, neighborhood or landmark in the search bar. We'll locate you on the map and serve up homes near this location for you to start pricing.

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This is a great way to price homes near where you live or where you are looking to move. Price Me Now is the first real estate prediction market game that gives you an IQ - the Realius IQ - which is a measure of how well you know the market. If you are buying, selling or just watching the market, Price Me Now is the only place where you can test your market knowledge and get a real time read on what people are thinking about real estate prices. As the price predictions flow in, our patent pending learning algorithm cranks through the data to determine the Realius Price - the predicted sales price of the home based on the collective wisdom of the crowd.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Tue, 20 May 2008 03:23:34 -0700 Presenting at JMP Securities 7th Annual Research Conference http://blog.realius.com/presenting-at-jmp-securities-7th-annual-resea http://blog.realius.com/presenting-at-jmp-securities-7th-annual-resea I will be presenting about our revolutionary marketing and prediction market platform at the 7th Annual JMP Securities Research Conference tomorrow.  I will be joined by John Cunningham, our chief mathematician, who report on some of our early findings regarding the predictive qualities of our platform and player price estimates.  We are honored to be one of the few private companies that will be presenting at this distinguished conference.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Tue, 13 May 2008 21:03:53 -0700 Interviewed by Hyve Up http://blog.realius.com/interviewed-by-hyve-up http://blog.realius.com/interviewed-by-hyve-up Xavier Vespa of Hyve Up came to the office last week and put together an excellent video interview about Realius. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWz28R1PCwQ[/youtube] You can check out other Web 2.0 interviews at Hyve Up.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Thu, 08 May 2008 23:20:51 -0700 April Contest Winner - J. Richard Brewer http://blog.realius.com/april-contest-winner-j-richard-brewer http://blog.realius.com/april-contest-winner-j-richard-brewer
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Congratulations to J. Richard Brewer from Algonquin, Illinois, the winner of the April Real Estate IQ contest sponsored by iHouseWeb running on the Price Me Now game site, iHousegames. Richard has been in the building trades industry for over 20 years and he had a three-year stint in the residential mortgage industry. For the past year, he has been a licensed Realtor with Coldwell Banker Primus. When asked about his thoughts on the Price Me Now game, Richard was succinct and to the point - "I love that game! It really helps keep me sharp!". A look at Richard's player profile in the game shows that he really knows the Illinois market. He played 24 homes and had an IQ of 167 for the month of April. It is not too late for you to play and win. iHouseweb is sponsoring a May contest. This time there are prizes for the top three places.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Mon, 05 May 2008 21:37:30 -0700 They are playing our game http://blog.realius.com/they-are-playing-our-game http://blog.realius.com/they-are-playing-our-game Drew Myers from Zillow sent me a note the other day to highlight a post on their forum: It is titled "Who wants to play Guess the Price of That House?" So I checked out the comment thread. Well, they are playing our game "Price Me Now" right there on the Zillow Forum. It is much more fun to play this game when you add a scoring model (Real Estate IQ), more pictures of the home, an interactive map and comparable sales data. If you want to test your market knowledge and see how you stack up against the experts, give Price Me Now a spin. You can pick for a handful of locations right now from our homepage. There will be more locations - domestic and international - coming soon. If you would like to add the game to your website, contact us at "info at realius.com" and we'll see what we can arrange.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Wed, 23 Apr 2008 02:51:35 -0700 Live from Inman TV http://blog.realius.com/live-from-inman-tv http://blog.realius.com/live-from-inman-tv While at the Inman Real Estate Connect Conference in New York at the beginning of 2008, Joel Burslem interviewed me about Realius. The interview covers the company vision and early results from our beta site. You can watch the interview here.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Sat, 12 Apr 2008 00:07:26 -0700 Part of the Real Estate Rainbow Coalition http://blog.realius.com/part-of-the-real-estate-rainbow-coalition http://blog.realius.com/part-of-the-real-estate-rainbow-coalition Marc over at 1000watt Consulting embraces innovation with an open mind. In his blog post the other day title The pot of gold at the end of real estate's rainbow coalition, he points out the various innovations that have been brought to the real estate industry from "outsiders". In defining the Rainbow Coaltion, Marc states:
One could argue that in the 90's, the first wave of Internet invaders were made up of dot-com rustlers looking to wrangle consumers away from the traditional real estate coral. By 2002 - high noon - most if not all them were gunned down or run out of town. Today the landscape sparkles, augmented by a beautiful rainbow forming over yonder. It's comprised of a pantone chart of vendors, bloggers, thinkers and innovators with new perspectives, deep intelligence and wonderfully fresh offerings. You know some of them -- Joel, Dustin , Seth -- who join with many others like Jessie, Chuck and other new entrants with cool, new, engaging ideas. Real estate today. It's a rainbow coalition of outsiders, insiders, consumers, MBAs, college students, Americans and friends abroad all participating in the construction of a new real estate experience. Not only for themselves, but for everyone.
We're honored to be part of Marc's coalition.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius Wed, 26 Mar 2008 20:27:41 -0700 Test Your Market Knowledge in the Brightest Real Estate Market in the Country - Charlotte, N.C. http://blog.realius.com/test-your-market-knowledge-in-the-brightest-r http://blog.realius.com/test-your-market-knowledge-in-the-brightest-r Recently, the January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes for 20 cities were released, painting a grim picture for all markets except Charlotte, North Carolina. Overall, the 20-city price index was down 10.7 percent from the year before. Las Vegas and Miami were hit worst reporting 19.3 percent drops. Charlotte, N.C. was the sole winner, growing by 1.8 percent from January 2007 to January 2008. Would you like to see Charlotte real estate for yourself? Today for the first time you can get in the market by guessing future sale prices of homes throughout North Carolina, Arizona & Illinois in 'Price Me Now'. Head over to http://ihousegames.realius.com to play! Play throughout North Carolina:
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Price hundreds of listings throughout Charlotte's seven play regions:
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Check out Arizona and Illinois as well:
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/616292/happyhouse.png http://posterous.com/users/5BhwaqvNyEk9 realius realius